Permatang Pauh liberates country

The Permatang Pauh by-election on 26 August 2008 has been billed as "the mother of all by-elections", "the dirtiest elections ever" and "a do-or-die by-election". Not only would it decide who would be the representative for the parliamentary seat of Permatang Pauh but it would also determine whether Anwar Ibrahim, the former Deputy Prime Minister, would re-enter parliament after ten years in the political wilderness. This in turn may also mean the possibility of a change of government which many Malaysians hope will herald in a period where there will be a better Malaysia for all Malaysians.

After 10 days of intense and tumultous campaigning, polling day started on a bright note with sunny skies despite the forecast of rain. Very few people have doubts that Anwar Ibrahim would win this by-election but the question on many people's mind is the margin of victory. Would it surpass the 13,398 majority which Wan Azizah won during the March 8 general elections? Or would the persistent accusations hurled at Anwar persuade some of the voters to cast their votes for BN instead, thus reducing the majority which Anwar would get? A resounding win for Anwar would be an endorsement and a strong signal for him to lead the country.

A high voter turnout has been predicted for this by-election. The public holiday declared by the Penang state government would certainly more than offset the unusual decision of the Election Commission to fix the polling day on a weekday. The Permatang Pauh voters must realise how important this by-election is for the country. With the presence of the top leaders of both the Pakatan Rakyat and the BN canvassing for their votes and the constant media focus on the constituency, any complacent voter there would certainly be woken up from their slumber. In the March elections, the voter turnout was about 80%. The total number of voters for the by-election is 58,459. If there is increase of voter turnout to 85% there should be a total of about 50,000 casting their votes.

The racial composition for the Permatang Pauh constituency is Malays - 69.4%, Chinese - 24.5%, Indians - 6% and others - 0.1%. Most observers feel that the majority, if not all of the non-Malays voters will vote for Anwar due the racial issues which were exploited by the BN recently and in particular the Malay supremacy stance taken by UMNO. It is interesting to note that out of the 3 state constituencies in Permatang Pauh, only the mixed state constituency of Seberang Jaya was won by UMNO represented by Arif Shah in the March 8 election. Perhaps, it is due to the habit of Penangites to vote for BN in the state constituency and opposition for the parliamentary seat which saved Arif in the general elections. He won by a majority of only 533! It is very unlikely that many of the non-Malays in Seberang Jaya would vote for him for the parliamentary seat.

In the other two predominantly Malay state constituencies of Permatang Pasir and Penanti, PAS and PKR won the seats in the March elections with majority of 5,433 and 2,219 respectively. BN was trying their best to win back some support in these areas by using dirty tactics of playing up the unbelievable sodomy case against Anwar and showing videos of Saiful swearing with the Koran. Instead of winning them over, these tactics have probably alienated more of the Malays voters including some UMNO supporters. Many are not convinced by the sodomy allegation against Anwar. In a survey conducted by the Merdeka center, about 60% of the Malays surveyed do not believe the sodomy claims and agree that they are politically motivated.

So, what would be the results of this mother of all by-elections Malaysia? Out of the total of about 50,000 voters predicted to come out to vote, about 30% or slightly less of the non-Malay votes should go to Anwar. Lets say about 14,000. Of the remaining Malay voters of about 36,000, more than 60% of these voters should vote for Anwar which will be about 22,000 votes. The final outcome can be Anwar - 36,000 and Arif - 14,000 but due to unexpected events such as names not appearing in the electoral rolls the predicted outcome is:

Prediction of Permatang Pauh By-election results (at 5.31 pm, 26/8/08):
Anwar Ibrahim - 35,000
Arif Shah - 15,000
Majority - 20,000

Final official results

However, when the final results were announced by the EC the actual turnout did not increase as predicted but remain almost the same as in the March 8 elections at 81%. The final official results of the Permatang Pauh by-election is as follows:

Anwar Ibrahim - 31,195 votes
Arif Shah - 15,524 votes
Hanafi - 92 votes
Majority - 15,671

Anwar has won the by-election with a higher majority of 15,671 as compared to the 13,388 majority obtained by Wan Azizah in the March 8 election. Although this is lower than what was predicted, it is still a thumping endorsement for Anwar Ibrahim.