High stakes in Penang

High stakes in Penang (courtesy of Malaysiakini) Bridget Welsh Feb 27, 08 12:48pm From the core base of PKR in Permatang Pauh in the mainland to the multi-ethnic diverse Gerakan seat of Jelutong on Penang island, the 12th general elections campaign is slowly gaining momentum. The stakes are arguably higher in this state than in any other. Penangites have the power to determine the future of the opposition and the multi-ethnic vibrancy of the governing BN coalition. One of the biggest tests in Penang is for Gerakan. The new party president has stepped down as chief minister to move to the federal level. Choosing the mixed constituency of Batu Kawan, his chances for re-election are strong, as long as he maintains support from the Malay community and a cohort of Chinese voters in this fast-developing constituency (Malay: 21%, Chinese: 56.6%, Indian: 22.4%). He faces the formidable opponent of Professor Dr P Ramasamy, who has galvanised the Indian community in this constituency, where the MIC is divided by infighting and the visit by party chief S Samy Vellu with police protection has served to further alienate Indian supporters from the BN. To date, the BN’s campaign in Penang has called into question its multi-ethnic representativeness. The failure of Gerakan to offer an Indian candidate in this state has created the impression that this party is not multi-racial. They have not been helped by the actions of component BN parties, as the MIC has offered two unknown candidates in the three seats it is contesting and the BN as a whole has not illustrated strong policies in this state to address concerns of ethnic marginalisation in areas of local (and national) concern such as temple demolitions, housing and access to education. The BN manifesto, while laying out a multi-ethnic framework, has yet to inspire confidence that it will translate these ideals into policies in Penang. Gerakan leaders in particular will need to illustrate that they can genuinely represent all communities. The composition of the Gerakan slate not only tests the representativeness of the party and the BN coalition, but has raised questions about the future leadership of the state. Using the slogan of ‘Reinventing’, Penangites are not clear whether Gerakan – the BN component party with the most professionals and highly qualified leaders – can offer a slate of alternatives for future development. Uninspiring heir apparent Confidence in the heir apparent Dr Teng Hock Nan (centre), has not taken root, despite his years of grooming in the state executive council. In the past two years, the management of issues of transportation and land development – especially involving the controversial movement of the Turf Club for financial gain to actors outside of the state - has not inspired confidence, and employment generation and crime have not been effectively addressed. The choice of medical doctor Teng over well-respected local urban planner Chia Kwang Chye and the dynamic hard-working lawyer Lee Kah Choon has raised questions about the leadership of the state. The questioning sentiment is most acute on the island, where the downturn in economic fortunes and challenges are most serious. Rising inequality, crime, inflation and concerns about vibrancy were echoed from throughout the state, however, from the new village of Berapit to the middle-class houses in Green Lane. Gerakan will not only have to address the disgruntlement within its party over the choice for chief ministership, but show the electorate that it can bring solutions to the crossroads for the state. It will take more than a ‘reinvention’. Gerakan has faced over the past few years declining support from the federal government. This is despite the fact that Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi is from Penang. The transformation of support has evolved from a national move away from focusing on building education, policies that reinforce competitiveness in manufacturing and the orientation of the new economic policies away from the strengths of private entrepreneurship and small business that give this state competitive advantage. The Northern Corridor project has yet to bring in benefits, and these benefits are seen not to be potentially equitably allocated to the state as a whole and communities from and within Penang. Voters, for example, are asking why resources are being concentrated in Abdullah’s constituency rather than equitably distributed. Coupled with this issue of a lackluster national base of support for economic development are concerns about encroaching Umno control over the state affairs. The Turf Club project has severely alienated voters on the island, since it is seen to be driven by the interests of Umno based in the federal government, and the entire process of land development allocation for this project has lacked genuine consultation. The changing ethnic dynamics, reinforced by more seats weighted toward Malay areas in the state, are affecting the composition of state assembly. For Gerakan, the issue will be whether they maintain the dominant position within the state, or whether Umno, which has already called for the chief ministership, will demand more representation. For many non-Malay Penangites, the calls along racial lines have fostered reservations about Umno governance in the state and the overall balance of multi-ethnic representation within the coalition. In some minds, are the lessons of power-sharing of Malacca and Sabah. Penang voters will not only determine the future of Gerakan, but will be a watershed for multi-ethnic coalition dynamics and future state leadership. Return of DAP? For the opposition, the stakes are equally high. The galvanised DAP, coming off an impressive victory in the May 2006 state election in Sarawak and accepted view supported by polling of Chinese alienation, has returned to Penang for a larger mandate. They are asking voters for a more modest support than in the 1990 campaign in calling for breaking the two-thirds BN control. This marker is important since it will provide a check on issues of land development and a stronger voice for raising concerns of governance. They face a pattern of pragmatic split voting by Penang voters, who support the BN parties for service and local access to a greater degree at the state than at the federal level. While their campaign is led by Lim Guan Eng, whose commitment to service and raising issue is long-standing, many of the candidates slated are unknown and although most are originally from Penang have been based out of the state. The DAP will have to show that their youthful dynamic slate has the ability to address the concerns of Penangites. Many of the DAP candidates have long records in the party, with service experience, yet this is not clear to many voters who want access and ideas for solutions to Penang’s challenges. They face a professional slate from the MCA and Gerakan. The DAP manifesto raises the problems facing Penang, but its campaign has yet to illustrate solutions. The ability of the DAP to tap negative sentiment and translate it into positive action remains a challenge. The DAP’s dynamic younger leadership faces this difficult test. The outcome will determine whether the party can go through a generational transformation. In order for this to evolve, respected senior leaders like Karpal Singh need to share his input for Penang’s future and his party’s future. The test for PKR is as intense. The sole seat of Permatang Pauh remains highly competitive, with Umno slating the imam Firdaus Ismail the challenger who ate decisively into the party leader Wan Azizah Wan Ismail’s hold over the seat. Her supporters on nomination day were impressive, and enthusiastic, but her record of service and attention to the party affairs rather than her seat makes her vulnerable. The focus of Umno on this seat, on undercutting PKR at its core makes this fight a difficult one. What is important in this campaign compared to 2004 is the ongoing evolution of the party leadership from Wan Azizah to Anwar Ibrahim. Prevented from contesting by the early date of the election, Anwar has been given the gift by the BN in that he can advise and travel nationally rather than focus on one constituency. Yet, Permatang Pauh voters remain uncertain whether he will come back to his home base and whether their vote is for Wan Azizah or an indirect vote for him if a by-election is called in April. Acid test for PKR, Umno PKR’s test is not just about the leadership of the party and its role in one seat, but its ability to reach out and represent beyond Anwar. There are stronger candidates slated in Penang by PKR than in 2004, but the challenge of getting the brand of the party across remains formidable. They are some competitive seats as the party pushes a multi-ethnic agenda (notably Nibong Tebal), but resources remain an obstacle for the young candidates. For PKR the main test is whether it will have a base on the state that is multi-ethnic. This will involve a more dynamic campaign effort than has been illustrated so far. Behind the scenes, there is one additional test for a political party. This involves Umno. The party has brought in a senior minister to establish a mandate and fostered disgruntlement in the means in has chosen its slate. The infighting in the party remains serious, and this could lead to a change in support among Malays as well as a drop in the support for the prime minister. When Nor Mohamed Yakcob, the minister in question, has been a key part of the ministry that has raised prices by removing subsidies, it is indeed interesting to see whether accountability on the bread and butter issues will influence voters or whether resource allocation driven by state access, senior positions in government and incumbency will be decisive. Kepala Batas and Tasek Gelugor will be important constituencies to watch, as they will point to whether Abdullah’s administration and his leadership have support from within Umno and the Malay electorate as a whole. Abdullah’s ability to heal these party rifts and minimise sabotage from within his ranks will come out in the Penang polls. These contests will have important consequences for the main Umno contest, its party’s polls scheduled for later this year. Finally, and perhaps, most importantly, the polls in Penang are on the display internationally and domestically. The spotlight is focused on this pragmatic multi-ethnic electorate of largely middle-age voters. In 2004 there were concerns about electoral irregularities, notably in Permatang Pauh, and the unfair use of taxpayer resources to support specific candidates. The campaign in Penang will be one in which the fairness of the polls will be in focus. This may be the decisive factor that shapes the final outcomes. Campaigning will likely continue to follow the traditional pattern of labour-intensive hand-shaking, ceramah and face-to-face engagement, but will also be one in which concerns of phantom voters, media access, and resource allocation will be critical. In short, not only the future of the parties but the electoral process itself is at stake in Penang. Penangites traditionally relish the electoral process - expect high voter turnout and an increasingly engaged campaign as all sides address their internal and external challenges ahead. DR BRIDGET WELSH is assistant professor in Southeast Asian studies at John Hopkins University-SAIS, Washington DC. She is following the campaign trail in a number of states. Her next stop is Kuala Lumpur and Selangor.