Will urban voters trigger the tipping point?

Will urban voters trigger the tipping point? - Malaysiakini Stanley Koh Malcolm Gladwell in his widely read book ‘The Tipping Point’ brilliantly narrated how ‘little’ things can make a ‘big’ difference. According to The Telegraph, the tipping point “is a magic moment when an idea, trend or social behaviour crosses a threshold, tips and spread like wildfire: like a flu epidemic, popularity of a new product, a drop in crime rate”. Will this happen on polling day, March 8? Malaysians have recently witnessed the Hindraf phenomenon which many believe will radically change the voting patterns of the minority Indian community. Surely this cannot be the only factor in determining the results of the upcoming elections. As an illustration, if we look back at the recent past and the couple of issues which snowballed and created the perception of serious misdeeds by Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s government, only then can we begin to understand the hot button issues which can move the urban voters beyond the “bread and butter” issues. In 2007, a survey conducted by Merdeka Center for Opinion Research revealed surprising results. “About two-thirds of the respondents (51% urban and 49% respondents) think the country needs a stronger opposition,” it said. It also observed that “Chinese are more in favour of having a stronger opposition and their desire increases steadily”. The survey asked - does the country need to have a stronger opposition? It showed that at the national level, some 66% agree, 4% maybe and 26% disagree, while in Kuala Lumpur (67% agree, 6% maybe and 17% disagree) and Selangor (58% agree, 6% maybe and 28% disagree). Disparaging, racist remarks What could be the causes of such perceptions? A year before the survey was done, several Umno delegates made disparaging and racist remarks against the non-Malay community at the party’s annual congress along with its infamous keris-raising incident. There appeared to be a serious gap between what government leadership had promised and the sentiments expressed by the ruling party’s rank-and-file leaders. Take these few examples. “I will never allow non-bumiputeras to enter UiTM. I will ensure that the percentage of Malay students given places at public universities will always be higher than the percentage under the previous quota.” (former higher education minister Shafie Salleh, Umno AGM, 2004) “Universiti ini tempat Melayu.” (Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak, Umno AGM, 2004, in referring to UiTM) Compare such remarks to the 2004 BN general election manifesto which said, “BN has worked hard to provide universal access to education. We will … foster student interaction to enhance national unity.” The same can be said of other promises made in the 2004 manifesto. “I hope the public will not question the money saved…” (Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, March 17, 2006, on the RM4.4 billion saved from fuel subsidies). “Why are you complaining? What more do you want?’ (Abdullah, April 7, 2006 on the 9th Malaysia Plan). Yet the manifesto argued that “BN cares about your needs and will seek your views on important issues.” Promises broken On “religion and culture”, the 2004 manifesto said: “BN will continue to promote peace, prosperity and harmony among Malaysians. BN upholds the diversity of religious practice, language and culture. The reality however is very different, especially with the recent spate of Hindu temples demolition. Or consider what Badruddin Amiruddin (left), who has been picked to defend his Jerai parliament seat, said: “Let no one from the other races ever question the rights of Malays on this land. Don’t question the religion because this is my right on this land. Don’t poke at this nest, for if it were disturbed, these hornets will strike and destroy the country.” During a parliamentary debate, the same Badruddin lashed out at the opposition: “Malaysia ini Negara Islam, you tak suka, you keluar dari Malaysia.” On human rights and freedom, the 2004 manifesto promised, “BN safeguards the interests of all citizens. We listen to and act on the hopes and aspirations of all groups regardless of age, gender, ethnic background and religion.” Here’s the reality - Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Mohd Nazri Abdul Aziz on March 20, 2006 said, “We will not think twice about using this law against anyone who incites - that’s why we still need the Sedition Act and ISA (Internal Security Act)”. On Suhakam’s ineffectiveness, he said, “I think you are dreaming, we have never planned to give any teeth to Suhakam. To give them teeth has never been a proposal.” On the corruption and abuse of power issue, Umno secretary-general Radzi Sheikh Ahmad (commenting on money politics) said, “Umno does not intend to report the cases to the ACA. We have our own mechanism.” Urban voters better informed Today, urban voters are better positioned to evaluate the government’s ability in delivering its promises. This category of voter segment has an information advantage that may arise due to several factors: 1. Greater average wealth 2. Higher education 3. Better access to the media as well as stronger urban focus in media coverage 4. Greater access through the Internet and interactive IT communication Tricia Yeoh (right), director of Centre of Public Policy Studies, has put a rather tantalising question: “Will urban voters translate their political perceptions and sentiments into changing patterns at this general election?” Perhaps part of the answer lies in this remark by economist Zainal Aznam Yusof: “A responsible government would say what it wants to do after the elections. You cannot dupe the electorate - they know what is coming.” Gladwell in his book concluded by saying that people can radically transform their behaviour or beliefs with the right kind of impetus. “Tipping points are a reaffirmation of the potential for change and the power of intelligent action. Look at the world around you. It may seem like an immovable, implacable place. It is not. With the slightest push - in just the right place - it can be tipped.” Will it happen on polling day?